City Prepares for "New Normal," the Hardscrabble Post Recession Economy

Six Rules Advised for Local & State Governing, City Manager Belleman Notes

December 27, 2009
By: Dave Rogers

It's not just a buzzword.

It's economic reality.

The phrase of the day is the "new normal," coined, apparently by ABC News.

City Manager Robert V. Belleman is telling commissioners to prepare for the "new normal" to avoid problems faced due to the economic downturn.

In his biweekly general information memo, Mr. Belleman pointed to several areas the city is addressing as the new year approaches, including:

Seeking additional funding in the economic development administration budget that will assist in redeveloping infill sites such as the Dunlop dealership and attracting additional businesses to the General Motors Powertrain facility;

Collecting $75,865 on 751 invoices for outstanding invoices to be special assessed and placed on winter tax bills;

Settling the tax assessment of General Motors on their 2009 appeal of automotive manufacturing equipment assessment and the appeal of Wenonah Park Properties (Doubletree Hotel) to the State Tax Commission;

Dealing with the Federal Highway Administration that has not made payment on time for the North Henry Street Project "as promised due to the failure of Congress to pass/update legislation to allocate funds to the Federal Highway Trust Fund."

Mr. Belleman commented: "The city is now paying interest on the local share due to the failure to enact legislation to keep the Federal Highway Trust Fund solvent."

The ABC network commented: "The worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the ensuing recession have forced Americans to change their lives in ways large and small. It's a world of 'new normals,' with more belt-tightening, less income and, in many cases, a newfound gratitude for the most basic human comforts: family, home and health."

Mr. Belleman refers to an article in the December 2009 issue of "Governing," noting the publication author's six rules of advice to state and local government's legislative bodies and staff:

1. Live within your means. Some elected officials try to promote politically popular pet projects without a viable long-term funding plan. That kind of short-term thinking won't be possible -- lurking financial problems will surface before today's incumbents leave office. So, fiscal policies will have to address the limits of the New Normal economy. Setting expectations is a vital part, starting with a budgetary teach-in for policy makers -- maybe a special study session that focuses on realistic five-year revenue projections and five-to seven-year increases in retirement-plan expenses. That will be an eye-opener.

2. Look to the future. It's time to set long-term priorities and stick to them -- even though governing bodies tend to focus on the issue du jour and react to the current developments without putting all competing priorities in perspective. If basic services such as roads and public safety are all the community can afford, then it may be time to begin a long-term process of downsizing or eliminating activities that were great ideas but are simply unaffordable in light of other costs.

3. Stop deferring expenses. When the economy enters a recession as deep as this one has been, it is natural to cut back on equipment replacement, infrastructure and capital maintenance. But deferred expenses don't go away. They come back and bite you later. Budget officers should prepare a list of all ongoing deferred spending. That way, policy makers can see what needs to be funded before discretionary programs can be restored. Get department heads involved -- they won't be bashful about their needs.

4. Fund retirement obligations. Few states and localities are funding their retiree medical benefits on a proper actuarial basis. Many can't even afford the pension and post-employment medical benefits they have already granted. The new reality is that policy makers have to fund full annual contributions to both plans -- or else the costs will escalate really fast -- fast enough to torpedo those leaders before they leave office. Meanwhile, most public employers need to scale back their benefits for new employees and begin making all employees pay a greater share of the cost of their benefits.

5. Dedicate your surplus. At some point, state and local revenues will once again exceed budget estimates. When they do, it will still be necessary to focus on fiscal catch-up. Depleted reserves will have to be restored. For three to five years, at least 25 percent of budget surpluses should go to retiree medical benefit trusts (known as OPEB in public finance circles) that are presently unfunded. Another 15 to 30 percent should be used to restore deferred equipment purchases and facilities maintenance.

6. Set up a rainy-day fund. This may be the most important fiscal policy decision any governing body can make. The suggestions I've already offered will likely consume every dollar of free revenue that most governments receive between now and 2012. But once the revenue revival comes and stabilizes, it will be important to set money aside from the operating budget for lean periods in the future. The time to enact such a policy is now, when memories are fresh and the pain of recent retrenchments is vivid."

Author of the article is Girard Miller, financial specialist for retirement and investments of PFM Group, Philadelphia. Mr. Miller concluded: "The recovery, however, will be less robust than previous turnarounds, reflecting the hangover from the real estate bubble in 2007 and its associated stock-market bubble.

"State and local budgets will lag the general economy on the way back up, as tax receipts typically trail the general economy.

"States that enjoyed a revenue rush from taxes on capital gains won't be seeing anything like that for a long time to come. Investors' portfolios will carry forward their huge 2008 losses."

Taxpayers, investors, business managers, entrepreneurs -- all need to follow the six rules as we move into the "new normal." ###

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"The BUZZ" - Feedback From Readers

BJBREN Says:       On January 04, 2010 at 04:48 PM My attention was drawn to this article by the picture on the Magazine that quotes six points of "HOW TO " govern. Martin O' Malley is governer of Maryland which is deficit ridden to a frightening extent. In a recent interview on a NPR station he stated that "We sure need more Stimulus funds from Washington." And then I read item # 1....But so did you !!! What Editor picks this Governor to feature HOW TO ?? Would you Dave? Enjoy your weekly publication. Keep up the good work. BJ Brennan

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Dave Rogers
Dave Rogers is a former editorial writer for the Bay City Times and a widely read, respected journalist/writer in and around Bay City. More from Dave Rogers

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